Football can be a baffling sport. For instance one week the Chiefs can lose by 40, then a few weeks later the Chiefs can win in a 28 point shutout. That's the baffling story of the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs, many highs with just as many lows. Recently something has changed with how I see this team, something has given me renewed optimism. For 3 seasons I labeled this team as a gimmick team, leading the league in rushing but couldn't rush up the middle for first downs. Two weeks ago I called them a chameleon, because there was no consistency in what we wanted to accomplish offensively. I had my reservations and I stated them in regards to this coaching staff. I just don't think you can build a team off of player packages, draws, screens, and gimmicks. But since San Diego, the Chiefs have established something, something that I believe can lay the foundation for championship football.
The stats don't back up what I am seeing. Last week Matt Cassel put together a QB rating that was lower than if he just intentionally grounded the ball every snap. Stats should never be independent of analysis, Cassel in my mind played better than some of the 80 ratings he had last year. Stat wise matt Cassel was a Pro Bowl QB a season ago, but I never thought he was at that level. He put together a great 8 game run against zone defenses, lower ranked pass coverages, and in blowouts. They were great stats, but for the most part those stats were empty with no substance. On the field there were no 4th quarter comebacks, no meaningful passes. Last week, for the first time since Cassel became a Kansas City Chief, I witnessed a QB making meaningful throws. It's the type of throws that translate against any coverage. He threw the 50/50 ball, threw the back shoulder ball, threw in tight windows. The stats show an awful rating yet I witnessed an impressive performance.
Part of what impressed me wasn't so much what Cassel did, but what allowed Cassel to execute such an aggressive game plan. It starts up front and it starts first with Asomoah, and Barry Richardson. Asomoah is rapidly becoming a dominant interior lineman. It's no secret that he is becoming good, he was among the best at his position in his draft class. He has backed up the Chiefs faith in drafting him. For weeks Asomoah has been isolated on 3-tech's, and has been winning the battle in the run and pass games. He doesn't get beat and has shown the athletic ability to pull. Richardson is an interesting study. Richardson came to the Chiefs very raw, and year after year he was the first person most wanted replaced. All Richardson has done in four seasons is what a 6th round pick typically does, gradually improve. Richardson has become a guy that you can isolate on the LE and have him drive the LE off the ball, or seal the edge. It was supposed to happen, Richardson was a first round talent at the early portion of his draft process, and is realizing that potential. Richardson along with Asomoah have quietly become a dominant run blocking right side. Richardson will always have issues with pass protection, but it clearly isn't as noticeable as it has been in the past.
What the development of these two have done for the Chiefs cannot go unnoticed. Early in the season the Chiefs ran a game plan that protected this offensive line. In the San Diego game their skills were put to the test and justified. The Chiefs were able to pound out yardage on early downs. A similar game plan was put together against Indy and Minn, with the same result. The Chiefs quit protecting the O-line in the second half and it paid off. In Oakland it seems that the Chiefs finally believed in the offensive line. The Chiefs opened the game with an aggressive game plan, and the Chiefs line rose to the challenge. The story of the first 6 games is that the investment in Asomoah has paid off, and the patience in Richardson is being rewarded. Jackie Battle is a solid player, but his success is directly attributed to the development of Asomoah and Richardson. Richardson and Asomoah won't credit, but that's where the success of this running game starts. The development of these two should be a huge story in Kansas City, but not the biggest.
The biggest story of the season is the Chiefs 3-4 defense. Last week DJ racked up 14 solo tackles. That is significant because that not only means that DJ had a great game, that means DJ was free to have a great game. Allow me to clarify. When a running back has 140 yards we give credit to the o-line naturally. When we look at this defense we never give credit for to the D-line. We bought in to a D-lineman has to either be an edge rusher, or a 3-tech to be dominant. We have to look at this Chiefs D-line the same we look at O-lineman. This team doesn't play gaps, it's D-linemans job is to tie up lineman. Dorsey doesn't have to register a stat in order to have a dominant performance. His job is to make contact and force doubles, same with the other lineman. Dorsey's play should be evaluated by how many double teams he attracts. If Dorsey gets a double, Gregg gets a double, Belcher gets the FB, Hali gets the TE, then that leaves DJ on the ball carrier. This team, like SF and Willis, NE and Mayo is designed to put DJ one on one with the ball carrier.
The difference between this year and last year was Ron Edwards. Jackson for all he does well simply won't command a double. Ron Edwards couldn't command a double team. It comes down to simple math. In most base packages there are 7 blockers (5 O-lineman, 1 TE, 1 FB) vs. 7 run stoppers. If you have one player that commands a double that gives the defense an advantage. If you have two players that can command a double that will allow a team to have success against the run. The difference between this year and last year is Kelly Gregg and his ability to command an extra blocker. Every play that an offense runs will either double Gregg, Dorsey, or both. The improvement of our run defense has been the addition of a D-lineman that commands an extra blocker It's subtle but it allows DJ to be free'd up one on one with a RB. DJ has accepted and stepped up to the challenge and thus far that matchup is one that has been in the Chiefs favor.
Earlier this season teams spread us out forcing our nickel on the field. The Chiefs adjust to 3WR by using the nickel. That takes Gregg, Dorsey, Jackson off the field and replaces them with Piscatelli, Bailey, and Gilberry. Gilberry nor Bailey can attract a double team. Which means the offense can single block every player in the box. So instead of DJ being free, a blocker could account for DJ. The defense required safety help to stop the run. Losing Berry was critical because he was able to make this nickel work. Berry is an elite run stopper at the safety position. Berry wasn't critical in the 3-4, because the defense has the ability to free up DJ. But in the nickel when DJ isn't free, and Berry has been and will be the missing ingredient.
The nickel is a work in progress. Similar to Richardson the combination of Bailey, Houston, Gilberry will take time to develop. Early in the season Dorsey, Gregg, Jackson were taken off the field in favor of players with little to no NFL experience. As a result the nickel was gashed with runs. Many did not make this distinction and wrote this team off. This team is no different than the team that started the year, rather the match ups are different. Early in the season teams forced us into situations that took us away from our strengths. The good news is against SD and our 3 wins teams have kept us in the 3-4. In the future NE and GB will force us in the nickel, force Dorsey, Gregg, Jackson off of the field in favor of Bailey, Gilberry, and Piscatelli. It will be a blood bath, but my point is to expect it to be. Expect it to be because this nickel is 2-3 years worth of development away from being a strong unit. Similar to Richardson the combination of Bailey, Gilberry, Houston, and Arenas will take some time to develop like our 3-4 has taken time. Unfortunately the game plan will dictate that they play and despite their promise it will take a couple of years for our nickel to be a dominant unit. The good news and the reason for my 11-5 prediction is matchups.
San Diego, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Oakland represent 5 games against opponents that run Coryell offenses, or offenses that typically establish the run. Denver and Miami represent 3 games against inferior opponents. The 8 games are very winnable for the Chiefs due to matchups. Essentially they are run first schemes, with deep passing routes. Unlike early in the season and the future matchups with GB and NE these teams will keep our 3-4 on the field exclusively. These teams are not going to spread us out, and they are not going to run us over. Like the game against Oakland last week these games will come down to the QB making plays with their WR against Carr, Flowers, and our safeties. We witnessed that we can be very successful against teams that want to establish the run against our 3-4 holding Rivers and their offense to 20 points and forcing Oakland into 6 interceptions. The games vs. Cutler, Rothlesberger, Sanchez will come down to those QB's making plays in the passing game, because I have confidence that our run defense can stop them. Not ideal but a cause for optimism.
Our achilles heal for a few years has been possession passing offense, or elite TE/pass catching HB. We have issues with Hali, Belcher, Vrabel/Houston/Studebaker, Piscatelli/McGraw in coverage on short to intermediate routes. Wether that be the playoff game when Rice and Heap destroyed us in that area, or last year when Todd Bowman came off the tractor and destroyed Hali's zone with floaters. This team cannot defend those route combinations. We struck gold with this schedule. The teams we face depend on making plays in the passing game with the deep ball. The deep ball is something that the Chiefs defend better than most teams in the NFL. The reason for my optimism is that the majority of the teams we will face play to our strengths.
I predict 11-5 not because I am a Chiefs homer, far from that. The NFL is a game of matchups, and the matchups are in our favor. The wildcard is the development and execution of our offensive gameplan. Matt Cassel has to continue making the throws that he made last week. The 50/50 ball, the back shoulder, and the tight windows. Those are throws that are available against any defense. We have discovered over the last few weeks that we can trust this offensive line. We can get yards the old fashioned way and scrap the trick/gimmicks that we ran in the past. 11-5 should be a realistic goal for this team, and the division and playoffs should once again be in the Chiefs future.
