Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Chiefs Ways Catching Up

It took the Chiefs a long time to get to the place that they are now.  It took a long time for the Hunt family to move on from Carl Peterson.  Took a very long time for the Chiefs to hover around 30 million under the cap.  It has took a long time for the Chiefs to try to turn this thing around.  The myth is the Chiefs got here because their unwillingness to spend. The truth is the Chiefs got here because they lack the assets to spend money on.  Starting in 2013 the Chiefs will have no choice to spend. Allow me to show you how we got here, and where we currently are.

Currently we have Barry Richardson starting at Right Tackle, in a perfect world we would be saying good-bye to Jon Tait and his 13 years of service.  Potentially clearing a spot for him in our ring of honor.  That didn't happen, Tait finished his career in Chicago and retired a few years ago due to ankle problems.  Similarly we should be saying good bye or cheering Slyvester Morris, William Bartee, Greg Wesley, Ryan Sims, Larry Johnson, Greg Wesley, Scott Fujita and the list goes on.  Where the Chiefs are didn't happen in the last 3 years, it has happened well over the last decade.  The decade prior to the 2008 draft the Chiefs drafted 66 players, and 62 are no longer with the team or even in the league.  That number can't be dismissed when talking about the Chiefs cap.

You don't get to 30 million under the cap overnight, and for Pioli you don't get there in 3 years.  That 30 million dollars is an organizational failure.  It basically means you have the meat of your roster still playing on their rookie deals.  That doesn't fall on one GM, one coach, that falls on a decade of poor management.  In the last 3 years under Pioli, he has done little to get us out of the hole.  2009 actually was more of the same and has dug a hole a little deeper.

Fans are beating the spending drum.  Even if we gave every player on the roster 2 million dollars each we will still be under the salary floor, and far from sniffing the cap.  Even if we signed every free agent that comes our way that will still place us under the cap.  5 players worth 30 million dollars (above Steve Breaston) would still put us under the floor.  There is no spending your way out of 10 decades of bad personnel decisions.  There is only a few ways, but Pioli may have backed himself in a corner.

Last year Derrick Johnson signed a deal.  What wasn't mentioned was that Pioli signed DJ to a 19 million dollar base salary for the 2010 season.  Pioli absorbed that number in the 2010 cap and DJ pocketed the prorated portion as a signing bonus.  If you look at DJ's contract he has nothing but base salary left.  That doesn't show up on the cap in 2011 and in the future.  More than half of DJ's total contract is pocketed and off the books.  

Similarly Pioli worked out deals with Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles that have no future ramifications.  Pioli used roster bonuses in order to pay them instead of the typical signing bonuses that most of the NFL uses.  For all intents and purposes Jamaal Charles is paid for, he has base salary over the next 4 years around a 11 million dollars.  The guaranteed portion was a roster bonus of 8 million that is on the cap this year, but is in Charles' pocket and off our books in the future.  Cassel only has base remaining as well, similar to Charles Pioli front loaded his base and paid him in roster bonuses over the first 3 years of his contract.

These contracts were done prior to the current NFL CBA.  The new CBA is no longer about the cap but cash spending. Starting in 2013 the Chiefs will have to spend 89% of the cap in cash.  With Charles, Cassel, and Derrick Johnson for all intents and purposes "paid for", the Chiefs will have to find a way to get to that 89%.  Penalties for not doing so are fines, forfeiture of draft picks, and payment to all players on the roster for the difference.  In 2014 the NFL gets a 1 billion dollar windfall from ESPN, that will add approximately 10 million more dollars in cap space the Chiefs will have to deal with.

Currently we have Bowe and Carr up for a new deal.  The question isn't if the Chiefs pay them, rather how the Chiefs pay them.  Do we franchise the most expensive one and the following year give him a huge bonus?  Does Pioli get each a 5 year deal with a 20 million dollar roster bonus to eat space?  Carr and Bowe will be Chiefs, the issue isn't affording them, because they can't afford for cap purposes to let them go.

It's going to be an interesting next couple of years.  The NFL will force the Chiefs to spend so I expect them to approach free agency aggressively.  If they don't they will end up running the risk of facing penalties by the NFL.  I never viewed this team as cheap.  In the same breath I never viewed them as aggressive.  The problems the Chiefs currently have are problems from over a decade ago.  But now they have less than 2 years to fix them, and the clock is ticking.


Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Football Systems and How They Work

Typically there are two types of offenses, a vertical one, and a horizontal one.

Vertical Offenses

These are offenses that want to move the ball forward.  Offensively to move the ball forward you are taking a path of greatest resistence.  Everything has to be bigger in a vertical offense. The linemen are larger because the purpose is to have an advantage moving forward.  A vertical offense is about physicality not finesse.  The running backs tend to be bigger because the offense requires the ability to run downhill and take a pounding. The tight ends are bigger as well as the wide receivers in order to have advantages over safeties and linebackers in blocking.

Horizontal Offenses

These offenses are about space and timing. This puts a priority on athleticism and agility. The lineman are required to cover more ground so the tend to be smaller. The linemen have to block in zones, so speed to get there is more important than power that is required in a vertical offense. The running backs have to be quick and have ability to change direction, so size isn't as important as speed is.  Receivers need to be quicker and more explosive off the line.  In turn the receivers tend to be smaller, because smaller people tend to be quicker.

Vertical Offense

The Quarterback fits in based on skill set. In a vertical offense the goal for a QB is to beat a defense over the top.  The size of the offense is important in order to force the defense close to the line of scrimmage.  The bigger the line the better chances are that they can handle one on one inline blocking.  Then it becomes a numbers game that can force the defense to compensate with the aid of a safety.  Size and speed (different than quickness) of the wide receiver is important, because the throws have a larger margin of error primarily because of distance.  The Raiders, Steelers, Ravens, San Diego and Jets are a few examples of vertical offenses.  At their best they have large physical lines, power running backs, and a big arm Quarterback.  These teams typically produce solid running games but the statistics of their QB's are often lower than those of a horizontal game because of the degree of difficulty of attempts.

The passing game in these offenses ideally are designed as a secondary option after the run.  They have bigger rangier receivers often drafted high because of pure physical ability.  The passing game doesn't depend on accuracy as much as it depends on scoring, or at the very least the threat to score over the top.  Because of the physical nature if a defense doesn't react by bringing a safety up, then the offense will continue to pound to force that.  When looking for a Quarterback you look for one that has a huge arm ala Barkley or RG3.  Accuracy and Timing isn't as important, rather raw power and the ability to counter a power running attack.

In a horizontal system it is all about space.  Typically these offenses are going to require quickness all around.  The goal is to spread out defense and create favorable match-ups in space.  Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, Indianapolis are a few examples.  These offenses are typically going to produce the more efficient QB's in the NFL, and be statistically superior to QB's vertical offenses.  That's because the degree of difficulty in the attempts are lower.  One reason is physicality isn't as important as technique and skill.

Accuracy, timing, and quickness is at a premium for a QB.  Often times a GM will overlook arm strength and favor accuracy.  Also intelligence is important, rather than physical gifts.  In a horizontal offense the quarterbacks don't have to be prototypes rather just quick with their release and reads.  Andrew Luck will be a great fit, where RG3 has greater bust potential, because the offense doesn't cater to his strength which is a big powerful arm.

Great Teams

The misconception today is that a QB makes a team.  Which is true but systems are just as important.  Put Aaron Rodgers on the Raiders and force him to depend on beating defenses over the top, and you have a different QB.  What makes Rodgers so great is his talent is tailor made for the offense that Grenn Bay runs.  Also when Pittsburgh is at it's best it's not when Rothlisberger is statistically dominant, rather when that running game is statistically dominant.

We get confused because Flacco and Sanchez don't pass the eye test but have results that compare to their statistically greater counterparts.  Not to diminish the importance of a QB, but the offenses that Flacco, and Sanchez play in require them to pass to score.  Which is different than an offenses that pass to win.  The running game wins, and in reference to the Steelers have been the backbone to their championships.  That's why Bradshaw baffles people who rank QB's based on championships, when Marino has none.  Bradshaw, Sanchez, Flacco are examples of QB's asked to score, not to win.

How do the Chiefs fit?

My biggest criticism of the Chiefs is that they haven't identified who they are.  They are neither a horizontal or vertical team.  People want a QB, I want a system.  At the top of the NFL, it isn't the best QB's that win.  Rather a combination of system and personnel.  Haley has to understand that, well before he identifies a QB.  There isn't a quarterback in the world that can win a Superbowl without the aide of a system.

If the Chiefs want a horizontal system then they shouldn't draft RG3 or Barkley.  Both have huge arms, but the offense requires a passer not a thrower.  If they want a vertical attack then both would be great options and be a compliment to the skill set already in place.  But that means getting larger linemen in place of Lilja and Wiegemann.  That means what do you do with McCluster and Charles?

Many have tried to build around players and failed.  As great as Adrian Peterson is, he is stuck in a west coast system that doesn't put him in position to be a championship caliber back.  Rather a stat machine on an average offense.  In New York for the Jets Peterson would be a perfect back.  Marino was the greatest QB in history, but Shula never used his gift and give him a running game.  Elway was in a similar situation until he got Terrell Davis to compliment that wonderful arm.  System's matter as much if not more than a QB.  Sure not having a QB is a problem but so is the inability to determine who you are.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Chiefs Will get to 11 wins

Football can be a baffling sport. For instance one week the Chiefs can lose by 40, then a few weeks later the Chiefs can win in a 28 point shutout.  That's the baffling story of the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs, many highs with just as many lows.  Recently something has changed with how I see this team, something has given me renewed optimism.  For 3 seasons I labeled this team as a gimmick team, leading the league in rushing but couldn't rush up the middle for first downs.  Two weeks ago I called them a chameleon, because there was no consistency in what we wanted to accomplish offensively.  I had my reservations and I stated them in regards to this coaching staff.  I just don't think you can build a team off of player packages, draws, screens, and gimmicks.  But since San Diego, the Chiefs have established something, something that I believe can lay the foundation for championship football.

The stats don't back up what I am seeing.  Last week Matt Cassel put together a QB rating that was lower than if he just intentionally grounded the ball every snap.  Stats should never be independent of analysis, Cassel in my mind played better than some of the 80 ratings he had last year.  Stat wise matt Cassel was a Pro Bowl QB a season ago, but I never thought he was at that level.  He put together a great 8 game run against zone defenses, lower ranked pass coverages, and in blowouts.  They were great stats, but for the most part those stats were empty with no substance.  On the field there were no 4th quarter comebacks, no meaningful passes.  Last week, for the first time since Cassel became a Kansas City Chief, I witnessed a QB making meaningful throws.  It's the type of throws that translate against any coverage.  He threw the 50/50 ball, threw the back shoulder ball, threw in tight windows.  The stats show an awful rating yet I witnessed an impressive performance.

Part of what impressed me wasn't so much what Cassel did, but what allowed Cassel to execute such an aggressive game plan.  It starts up front and it starts first with Asomoah, and Barry Richardson.  Asomoah is rapidly becoming a dominant interior lineman.  It's no secret that he is becoming good, he was among the best at his position in his draft class.  He has backed up the Chiefs faith in drafting him. For weeks Asomoah has been isolated on 3-tech's, and has been winning the battle in the run and pass games.  He doesn't get beat and has shown the athletic ability to pull.  Richardson is an interesting study.  Richardson came to the Chiefs very raw, and year after year he was the first person most wanted replaced.  All Richardson has done in four seasons is what a 6th round pick typically does, gradually improve.  Richardson has become a guy that you can isolate on the LE and have him drive the LE off the ball, or seal the edge.  It was supposed to happen, Richardson was a first round talent at the early portion of his draft process, and is realizing that potential.  Richardson along with Asomoah have quietly become a dominant run blocking right side.  Richardson will always have issues with pass protection, but it clearly isn't as noticeable as it has been in the past.

What the development of these two have done for the Chiefs cannot go unnoticed.  Early in the season the Chiefs ran a game plan that protected this offensive line.  In the San Diego game their skills were put to the test and justified. The Chiefs were able to pound out yardage on early downs.  A similar game plan was put together against Indy and Minn, with the same result.  The Chiefs quit protecting the O-line in the second half and it paid off.  In Oakland it seems that the Chiefs finally believed in the offensive line.  The Chiefs opened the game with an aggressive game plan, and the Chiefs line rose to the challenge.  The story of the first 6 games is that the investment in Asomoah has paid off, and the patience in Richardson is being rewarded.  Jackie Battle is a solid player, but his success is directly attributed to the development of Asomoah and Richardson.  Richardson and Asomoah won't credit, but that's where the success of this running game starts.  The development of these two should be a huge story in Kansas City, but not the biggest.

The biggest story of the season is the Chiefs 3-4 defense.  Last week DJ racked up 14 solo tackles.  That is significant because that not only means that DJ had a great game, that means DJ was free to have a great game.  Allow me to clarify.  When a running back has 140 yards we give credit to the o-line naturally.  When we look at this defense we never give credit for to the D-line.  We bought in to a D-lineman has to either be an edge rusher, or a 3-tech to be dominant.  We have to look at this Chiefs D-line the same we look at O-lineman.  This team doesn't play gaps, it's D-linemans job is to tie up lineman.  Dorsey doesn't have to register a stat in order to have a dominant performance.  His job is to make contact and force doubles, same with the other lineman.  Dorsey's play should be evaluated by how many double teams he attracts.  If Dorsey gets a double, Gregg gets a double, Belcher gets the FB, Hali gets the TE, then that leaves DJ on the ball carrier.  This team, like SF and Willis, NE and Mayo is designed to put DJ one on one with the ball carrier.

The difference between this year and last year was Ron Edwards.  Jackson for all he does well simply won't command a double.  Ron Edwards couldn't command a double team.  It comes down to simple math.  In most base packages there are 7 blockers (5 O-lineman, 1 TE, 1 FB) vs. 7 run stoppers.  If you have one player that commands a double that gives the defense an advantage.  If you have two players that can command a double that will allow a team to have success against the run.  The difference between this year and last year is Kelly Gregg and his ability to command an extra blocker.  Every play that an offense runs will either double Gregg, Dorsey, or both.  The improvement of our run defense has been the addition of a D-lineman that commands an extra blocker  It's subtle but it allows DJ to be free'd up one on one with a RB.  DJ has accepted and stepped up to the challenge and thus far that matchup is one that has been in the Chiefs favor.

Earlier this season teams spread us out forcing our nickel on the field. The Chiefs adjust to 3WR by using the nickel.  That takes Gregg, Dorsey, Jackson off the field and replaces them with Piscatelli, Bailey, and Gilberry.  Gilberry nor Bailey can attract a double team.  Which means the offense can single block every player in the box.  So instead of DJ being free, a blocker could account for DJ.  The defense required safety help to stop the run.  Losing Berry was critical because he was able to make this nickel work.  Berry is an elite run stopper at the safety position.  Berry wasn't critical in the 3-4, because the defense has the ability to free up DJ.  But in the nickel when DJ isn't free, and Berry has been and will be the missing ingredient.

The nickel is a work in progress.  Similar to Richardson the combination of Bailey, Houston, Gilberry will take time to develop.  Early in the season Dorsey, Gregg, Jackson were taken off the field in favor of players with little to no NFL experience.  As a result the nickel was gashed with runs.  Many did not make this distinction and wrote this team off.  This team is no different than the team that started the year,  rather the match ups are different.  Early in the season teams forced us into situations that took us away from our strengths.  The good news is against SD and our 3 wins teams have kept us in the 3-4.  In the future NE and GB will force us in the nickel, force Dorsey, Gregg, Jackson off of the field in favor of Bailey, Gilberry, and Piscatelli.  It will be a blood bath, but my point is to expect it to be.  Expect it to be because this nickel is 2-3 years worth of development away from being a strong unit.  Similar to Richardson the combination of Bailey, Gilberry, Houston, and Arenas will take some time to develop like our 3-4 has taken time.  Unfortunately the game plan will dictate that they play and despite their promise it will take a couple of years for our nickel to be a dominant unit.  The good news and the reason for my 11-5 prediction is matchups.

San Diego, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Oakland represent 5 games against opponents that run Coryell offenses, or offenses that typically establish the run.  Denver and Miami represent 3 games against inferior opponents.  The 8 games are very winnable for the Chiefs due to matchups.  Essentially they are run first schemes, with deep passing routes.  Unlike early in the season and the future matchups with GB and NE these teams will keep our 3-4 on the field exclusively.  These teams are not going to spread us out, and they are not going to run us over.  Like the game against Oakland last week these games will come down to the QB making plays with their WR against Carr, Flowers, and our safeties.  We witnessed that we can be very successful against teams that want to establish the run against our 3-4 holding Rivers and their offense to 20 points and forcing Oakland into 6 interceptions.  The games vs. Cutler, Rothlesberger, Sanchez will come down to those QB's making plays in the passing game, because I have confidence that our run defense can stop them.  Not ideal but a cause for optimism.

Our achilles heal for a few years has been possession passing offense, or elite TE/pass catching HB.  We have issues with Hali, Belcher, Vrabel/Houston/Studebaker, Piscatelli/McGraw in coverage on short to intermediate routes.  Wether that be the playoff game when Rice and Heap destroyed us in that area, or last year when Todd Bowman came off the tractor and destroyed Hali's zone with floaters.  This team cannot defend those route combinations.  We struck gold with this schedule.  The teams we face depend on making plays in the passing game with the deep ball.  The deep ball is something that the Chiefs defend better than most teams in the NFL.  The reason for my optimism is that the majority of the teams we will face play to our strengths.

I predict 11-5 not because I am a Chiefs homer, far from that.  The NFL is a game of matchups, and the matchups are in our favor.  The wildcard is the development and execution of our offensive gameplan.  Matt Cassel has to continue making the throws that he made last week.  The 50/50 ball, the back shoulder, and the tight windows.  Those are throws that are available against any defense.  We have discovered over the last few weeks that we can trust this offensive line.  We can get yards the old fashioned way and scrap the trick/gimmicks that we ran in the past.  11-5 should be a realistic goal for this team, and the division and playoffs should once again be in the Chiefs future.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Firing Haley is a Must

My friend Nick Wright broke national news Thursday, with his report that Todd Haley was going to be fired had he lost against the Indianapolis Colts.  This news got me exited, because I'm not a fan of Todd Haley the head coach.  I expressed my opinion via twitter and subsequently lost 7 followers.  In my debates on twitter I agreed somewhat with people.  I too love many of the qualities Todd Haley brings to the table.  Unfortunately for the most part they were talking about a coordinator, while I was talking about a head coach.

This distinction is important in respects to my opinion of Todd Haley.  The man is what he has always been.  He has fire in the pit of his stomach, he gets the best out of his players, he is a brilliant offensive mind, but a head coach he is not.  I don't base this off of scruffy beards, Lil Wayne concerts, or filthy hats like more accomplished men in the national media do.  I base this off of how this team is constructed.  Going on 3 years into the Haley/Pioli tenure we still don't know what Todd Haley is as a head coach.  This is important because knowing who you are determines everything that you do on the field and in the offseason.

The best coaches of all time are defined by their legacies.  Sure Bill Walsh won Superbowl's, but it's the Mike Holmgren's, Green Bay's and Andy Reid's West Coast principles that truly speak to the greatness of Walsh.  Those principles are used by nearly every coach in the NFL.  On the flip side the Steelers have had 3 coaches, which all shared same principles.  Without knowing the x's and o's we all have an idea of who the Steelers are.  Even when Chan Gailey, and Mike Mularkey coordinated the Steelers offenses they were going to knock teams in the mouth. Gailey moved on and did his thing in Kansas City, yet still we attempted to punch teams in the mouth with LJ carrying the rock 400+ times.  If the Chiefs want sustained success the most important thing is determining who they want to be.

Through the Haley era we have seen a team try to be smashmouth with the corpse of Larry Johnson.  Then changed to a zone blocking horizontal offense with Jamaal.  During the course of games we are a team that will have two distinct game plans.  Against Detroit we ran draws, screens, and hitches.  Against San Diego we ran downhill right at them.  The last two weeks have been a tale of two halfs.  Both games we started with horizontal passes and draws.  Only to end up running down hill and passing vertically.  Defensively we are much like the offense.  If I charted the snaps this season I wouldn't be shocked if we were in the sub package as much as the 3-4.

The blame for not establishing a philosophy falls on Clark Hunt, Scott Pioli, and Todd Haley.  In one offseason we acquire Mike Goff.  At his best Goff was a mauler for San Diego.  For years he was one of the better interior lineman in terms of run blocking.  Part of the success of LT can be attributed to the philosophies of San Diego's approach offensively.  The next offseason we acquire Ryan Lilja.  Ryan Lilja played in Indy for a passing team.  Goff and Lilja are on opposite ends in terms of skill set yet the Chiefs acquired both with the thoughts of playing key roles.  That is a clear sign that the offensive philosophy isn't established.

Another example would be our drafts.  If you were to determine who we are as a team by looking at our drafts there would be no consensus.  Our drafts have also reflected signs that this team does not know what it's identity is.  Jon Asomoah was an inline run blocker in college for Illinois.  His acquisition should have signaled that the Chiefs were going to go to more in line blocking.  This past draft we acquire Rodney Hudson who was a athletic, zone blocking, finesse Center.  Both are tremendous acquisitions but both have very different skill sets.  To the naked eye this isn't important but scheme can determine wether a guy like Kendrell Bell is a rookie of the year in Pittsburgh or flames out in a 4-3 as a Chief.

This is the root of my frustration with this staff.  We draft based on the skills of a player with the thought of developing packages for them.  We should draft based not only on talent but who fits the system the best.  A team should always have something that we can go to.  The Chiefs only have things they can go to if the given team allows it.  Our identity is that of a chameleon, ever changing for what we face.   We spend a first round pick on a receiver that is a 5 step read, without addressing the RT position.  Which in turn gives us two primary reads in Bowe and Baldwin that are #2 WR (in terms of route development and fits), and Barry Richardson having to 5 step protect if teams want to play man.  This team constantly drafts specialist.  Over the last two drafts we have spent picks on guys that have no shot at a starting spot.  We have spent picks to address special teams, sub packages, and offensive trick plays.  That's what we are building, that's our identity.

We can't run a west coast offense because our receivers can't get consistent releases against man.  Sure Bowe will shine with teams like Indy and Minn. giving him free releases, but what happens later against man.  Those reads develop later, making Richardson and Lilja protect longer.  We can run with Jackie Battle against the worst run defenses but what happens when that is no longer an option with the better run defenses.  Cassel hasn't faced a blitz in 2 weeks, what happens when he is forced to make checks.  This team is the best in the NFL at adjustments, but the games that matters comes down to being good at what you do.  Quite frankly nobody can tell me what the Chiefs do, and until we can we will never be able to sustain success on our own terms.

As a Chief fan we are now entering a potential 5th coaching change that will bring entirely different philosophies.  From Marty/Gunther, to Vermiel, to Herm, and to Haley.  Not one of those HC shared similar philosophies, and it shows with the lack of veterans on our roster.  I am for a change, because I know the way that we are doing it will not bring sustainability.  We may fail in the next hire, and I hope we do because rarely does a GM get a shot at a 3rd coach.  If the Chiefs are ever going to build a consistent leader then it starts with a concise vision on how to build.  I love Haley, unfortunately he is not the man for this job.  With the report from Nick Wright, I wish the Chiefs had lost that game.  As a fan it brings me closer to leadership that can potentially give us a winner.  As I have said I like Haley but I am convinced that neither him nor Pioli can ever give us the team that can compete on it's own terms.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Tebow and the hate.

I am a bit of a Tebow hater.  Not for the message but for the message...confusing huh.  It's not the message because I admire Reggie White, Chris Carter, and Tony Dungy for the way they used the platform of sports to further a message they believe in.  I admire it, I really do.  The three guys I mentioned above are different from Tebow though.  They were accomplished and their message came after the accomplishments on the field in terms of my perception.  Reggie White is the greatest defensive end that happened to be a preacher.  Chris Carter is one of the greatest receivers in the NFL that happened to carry the message.  Tony Dungy is a Super Bowl winning coach that carried a message.  Until last week Tim Tebow was a Christian message carrying guy that happened to be a 3rd string quarterback.

See that's the funny thing about sports.  Michael Jordan can give the worst acceptance speech in Hall of Fame history and really not change your opinion of him.  What he said was distasteful, mean, and just plain wrong.  But it was ok, because he earned it.  That's the thing about America, we will respect the people that earn what they get.  Kobe came into the league and people really disliked him.  Not because of his skills but because he was elevated to a spot he hadn't earned.  The same can be said about Lebron James.  In terms of ego's Lebron doesn't even register to MJ's, but he hasn't earned the right to be arrogant and therefore people dislike him.

We don't like to be force fed stars and mythical championship teams.  Tebow has been forced fed to us.  No 3rd string quarterback in history has been given the recognition that Tebow has received.  Nobody cares he is Christian, a lot of people are.  Like in the case of Kobe, and Lebron the hype is always going to put an athlete in a bad spot.  What makes this thing with Tebow so polarizing is that his message is bigger than his accomplishments.  Give me something on the field and I could care less if you are giving a sermon at the Superbowl.

Athletic success can overshadow bad marriages, bad conduct, DUI's, dogfighting, performance enhancers, and a Ray Lewis murder trial.  In the end that's what we care about.  Tebow can have both the football glory and his message, but he can't just use the NFL shield as a pulpit.  In the end his only relevance is football.  Wayne Simien was a great college player that became a minister.  Coffee was a backup running back in San Fran that found religion.  My point being people don't have issues with Tebow's message.  Tebow can have his message with or without football, but until he has success on the field the only thing that can be mentioned is how good of a kid he is.  That's the issue, any article that has been written in two years cannot account for what we care about.

There is no reason that I should know Tim Tebow's life story.  I don't know who in the hell Montana, Brady, Marino, Unitas, Rodgers, or Aikman's parents are.  These guys are legends that been on the big stage.  I don't know their charity work, nor their religion.  Frankly the media doesn't care nor do I.  They don't care because their careers actually had substance.  The media could actually cover what we care about with them, which is football.

Tim Tebow has been in the headlines for years.  He earned it, because he was one hell of a player in college.  The problem is, the coverage doesn't fade.  For two years he has done nothing on the field yet continues to be hyped.  His hype is for who he is and not what he is as a Quarterback.  That's the distinction.  Until we talk about actual football, talking about his religion will strike a nerve even for people that don't have a problem with it.  The simple fact is we don't tune into sports for religion or 9/11 conspiracies.

We follow football for obvious reasons and that is football.  It's refreshing that players have other passions, but football better be the first. Tebow could be walking old ladies across the street, but if he isn't throwing a deep fade on Sundays then that better not be a story.  Football is why we watch, if we cared what Tebow's faith was we would be in church on Sundays and not Stadiums.  I'm not saying that people won't stop the Tebow hate if he becomes a Super Bowl winning quarterback.  I am saying the "hate" is warranted for a bible thumping 3rd string quarterback.  A lot of the hate goes away when the headlines cover his football play and not his spiritual journey.


Saturday, October 8, 2011

GM's must start drafting the minds of players

We all process the world differently.  For instance my girl and I could be watching the Titanic on television.  We all know that the ship is about to go under.  They hit the iceberg and the ship was sinking and I automatically think, "ain't no way in hell I wouldn't find a way to get off that boat".  I eat my popcorn and just miffed at what I see.  Many people just accepting their fate.  The movie ends and for me it's off to yard work or an errand; the movie doesn't rent space in my head.  I look over and I see the tears building up in my old ladies eyes.  Then she poses a question that I am sure many of you got, "would you do that for me"?  WTF, I disconnected from that reality a long time ago.  I say, "yeah", it's a little one word response that makes my day to day living a lot more enjoyable.  See we both saw the same movie but in damn near 3 hours we processed what we saw completely differently.  It's an extreme example but still an example on how two people can see the same thing but process it completely differently.

In sports these interpretations differ from man to man as they do with my old lady.  I grew up with a kid named Orlandis Williams that ended up playing football at La Tech and in the Semi-Pros.  The kid was a natural, put him on the court and he would get 15ppg, on the football field he could play QB, RB, WR, CB, S, LB with equal success.  It's what many call a "gamer".  He was 6ft and 180 pounds with what I would guess the speed at a low 4.6.  Myself on the other hand was 6'2" 200lbs and ran a low 4.5.  Unlike Orlandis sports didn't come naturally.   In life like in sports I have to overanalyze any and everything, which in turn puts a lot of doubt in me.  In some aspects in life it's a gift, in sports it has been a hinderance.

When I played football in order for me to be comfortable with any decision I made on the field I had to put enough time overanalyzing the opponent.  I would study film as far as 3 years back on a team to be sure that I knew the coaches plays.  I had to know what they did on 1st down, on 2nd and 8, 2nd and 4.  I had to know what they did out of each formation.  I had to know what they did on the right hash mark, on the left hash mark, and in the middle of the field.  I had to know the stances of the lineman and any variances in their stance if it was giving me a tip.  I had to know the spacing of the wide receivers and determine what routes they ran based on the space.  I had to know if there were any variances in their body language pre snap as a tip on wether they were getting the ball.  I had to know variances in their feet to determine what direction they were going initially.  I was able to process most if not all of this information pre snap based on the information I gathered in the week.  That's a process many football players use but it's specific to a person's personality.  Wether you are in IT, or a custodian.  For some people let alone athletes you got people where they have the "feel", where they just have a natural ability to do a task.  For others they have to have all the information in order to make a decision.

This is something that is overlooked in sports.  Sure they have the wonderlick test to measure intelligence, but rarely do teams, or the general public look at the ways that athletes and people in general process information.  For example Peyton Manning is going to process information throughout the week similar to the example I gave of myself above.  80% of the time I knew the play in college before the ball was snapped.  On the surface it looked like I played reckless, but I processed enough information to the point where I knew the play.  That's Peyton Manning, he knows where the ball is going a majority of the time before the ball is snapped.  Brett Favre is the opposite.  Brett Favre plays based on the premise of what he feels, terms attached to him are "gunslinger", and "gamer".  Peyton never had those labels attached to him.  Generally because of those labels we have a sense to what those QB's thought process was, but we don't look at it specifically.  Both throw touchdowns and both throw interceptions.  The difference is Mannings success and failures are rooted in what he thinks is going to happen, Farve success and failures are based on what he feels is happening, subtle yet important differences.

Physical ability is important.  I may have a similar mental process to Manning but I can barely throw a ball 40 yards.  You have to have talent to play in the NFL.  But the mental game is never considered.  Put Manning in an offense like the West Coast where plays are scripted and he has to depend on his instincts/feel to make it work, and you don't have the same QB.  Develop Manning with a coach that doesn't have the same mental makeup like Dungy/Moore and you have a different QB.  That's what most people miss that cover sports.  Kiper can rave about an arm.  Leaf's and Jamarcus Russel's talent was undeniable but I bet nobody analyzed what their mental process was in order to determine their decisions.

As a Kansas City Chiefs fan we see both Matt Cassel and Ricky Stanzi.  Matt Cassel's physical ability is not that of Manning's, but his mental approach is similar.  Coaches rave about his work ethic.  But he constantly has someone making decisions for him. Which in term makes him rely on his "feel" and not his brain.  He is not allowed to go to the line and make adjustments, not allowed to call his own plays.  Not saying this turns him into a Pro Bowler but that approach matches his mental makeup.  Stanzi on the other hand is what you call a "gamer".  He doesn't make decisions that he thinks is right but that he feels is right.  That's the guy who you call a plays for, and will thrive in that setting.  Unlike Cassel his mind doesn't limit him.  He can scan no matter what the play is and make the right decision.  That screen pass against the Chargers, Stanzi because he is dependent on feel would have seen that the play wasn't there.  Cassel because of his mental approach needs time at the line to be comfortable.  If rushed he will make the play based on what he has determined is right based on his mind.  Against San Diego that screen was called pre snap and he made the throw.  He made it because it was decided prior to the play, he didn't process what was there on feel, he decided based on what was supposed to be there.  That's why this style of play calling doesn't suit his mind.  It relies on someone with feel for what is happening.  That's why he is so good in the two minute, he has the time to scan pre snap and eliminate reads.

Obviously the mind is measured through GPA, wonderlick, ACT, etc.  But the process of how one makes decisions is never evaluated, and that process is the biggest culprit outside of raw talent for success and failure.  Some teams get lucky.  They draft a player that mentally fits the profile of the staff and gameplan.  I provide no answers to remedying teams from making bad choices.  I just present to you another angle in which to evaluate the game that isn't being considered.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

What are the Chiefs?

Offensively we have seen two distinct game plans this season.  The two game plans that we have seen this season is rooted in both West Coast philosophies and a version of the Coryell.  Both have resulted in two diverse outcomes.  This presents a problem and I want to present perhaps some reasons why these issues exist.

Before I move forward allow me to move back.  Under Vermiel and Saunders the game plan was to protect the Quarterback.  Which meant an emphasis on talented TE, H-Backs, Running Backs, and Fullbacks in order to protect the ball with the run and to max protect with the use of only 3 primary route runners that ran deep routes.  The running back was usually the only short read and because of the route design and play development the running back had a lot of space.

Herm Edwards came in and that philosophy was slowly being changed.  Although he wanted to maintain the Coryell principles he wanted a different approach.  Saunders was all about attacking space.  With his zone blocking and his route development.  He wanted to play a smash mouth style.  He wanted to acquire physically superior athletes that could win one on one matchups and a strong armed Quarterback that could take advantage of it.  In came Dwayne Bowe one of the most physically gifted WR in Chiefs history.  In came Brodie Croyle one of the strongest arms to ever wear a Chiefs jersey.

We see that style have success around the NFL.  Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson depend on physical ability to make Norv Turner's scheme work.  Brodie Croyle was drafted to get the ball deep to Bowe, and another potential pick.  Larry Johnson was extended to be that power runner.  TG was retained to be the Antonio Gates to take advantage of the coverages that Bowe's ability and Brodie's arm power would have forced.  The nature of the NFL is that sometimes what a coach wants doesn't work out.  Your strong armed QB can't stay on the field.  You spend the next few years trying to make it work with a journeyman QB and Thigpen.  That cost coaches their jobs.

In comes Todd Haley and Matt Cassel.  Todd Haley has spent his early stages of his career with power arms that played in Coryell systems.  Matt Cassel is a product of a very different philosophy that we haven't seen around here.  Cassel comes from New England where they used ball control passing.  Perhaps it's the reason why Haley was high on Croyle because what he truly wants to do, it would require a Croyle skill set.  Currently we are a team offensively in transition.

You see it in the 4 games this season.  We attacked Detroit with zone blocking, screens, draws and had some success.  We attacked San Diego with a down hill running game and short 3rd down passes.  We attacked Minnesota in the first half the way we did Detroit and in the second half we used a Coryell system with in-line (man to man) blocking and 5 steps.  This happens to a team unable to dictate their terms.  This happens to a team who has only 2 draft picks in 3 years offensively getting playing time on your roster.  Currently we are a team with talent that does not compliment each other's skill set, an offense still in transition.

It's simple really, the reason why we don't have consistency is because this offense isn't built to compliment the skills of the QB.  When you have a QB that depends on accuracy to be successful then get him a receiver that compliment accuracy.  That means a receiver that is quick out of breaks that can get open quickly for the type of throws that are quick and accurate (Titus Young).  If you have a QB that depends on power then get him a receiver that gives the QB range and margin for error (Jon Baldwin, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall).

What we have in Kansas City is a poorly constructed offense with no identity and a GM and Coach that clearly aren't seeing eye to eye from a game plan and player standpoint.  You see it in our roster.  We have long range targets (Bowe, Baldwin, and Moeaki) for a short range passer.  We have a head coach that has never coached a variation of the West Coast passing offense.  Throughout the game we can see this team 3 years in still changing game plans and never having an identity.

My post is what are the Chiefs and sadly I leave you with more questions than answers.