Thursday, May 17, 2012

3 Reasons Bowe could be done in KC

Over the past few years Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe has emerged as one of the best Receivers in the NFL.  There was a stretch in 2010 where Bowe statistically put up some of the better numbers in NFL history.  Bowe's talent is undeniable and if it were up to me I would ink him long term.


Obviously it is not my team, I try my best to make sense of what the Chiefs do.  For me when I look at the factors surrounding Dwayne Bowe I am left thinking he is no longer part of the plans in Kansas City.  Below are my reasons...in no particular order.


1-Investment at WR


The Chiefs have invested heavily at the WR position the past 2 years.  They have brought in Steve Breaston, drafted WR in 1st round-2nd round (McCluster at time of draft)-4th round.  They have also added TE's in Boss and Moeaki (3rd round).


These moves individually don't replace Bowe, but collectively factor in to the value Bowe has with the team.  15 months ago Bowe was the Chiefs only option in the passing game, within a span of 15 months Chiefs added 6 players that will factor heavily in the passing game.


In my opinion it reduces the value that Bowe has for the Chiefs.


2-Pioli's position


In 2011 Pioli gave every indication that Hali would be part of the Chiefs future.  His quote:


"Tamba is a key contributor to our football team, and we have a tremendous amount of respect for him both personally and professionally," Cheifs general manager Scott Pioli said. "We want Tamba to remain a member of the Chiefs, and we will continue to work together with the hope of reaching a long-term agreement."


This year Pioli's stance on Dwayne Bowe is far less committal.  On 610's Fescoe in the Morning Pioli avoided the questions in regards to Bowe's future.  With Hali a player franchised a year earlier Pioli was up front with his intentions, but has handled Bowe questions in a completely different manner.


The following quote has been the most Pioli has said in regards to Bowe:


“We never talked with anyone about a trade for Dwayne Bowe. I didn’t. Romeo didn’t. No one who would ever have anything to do with a trade called or talked to anybody nor did we field any calls, so wherever that came from I will say unequivocally 100% untrue. We did not talk nor are we looking to talk with anyone about a trade for Dwayne.”


Can't read too much into it, but different tones in regards to both his franchised players in the past two offseasons.


3-Bowe could be too valuable


The Chiefs could have had Brandon Carr, but after signing Flowers a few months prior to a 50 million dollar deal, Carr didn't have the value to the Chiefs.  Cowboys paid him like a number 1 Corner.


The Chiefs are littered with team/cap friendly deals.  For the most part the team will get the most value out of the deals.  Winston, Charles, DJ are all signed below market value.  They recently got Tyson Jackson to slash half of his salary.  Chiefs typically get bargains.


Bowe could out price himself out of Kansas City.  He has a history of being a bit of a diva.  His 2010 season was phenomenal, he may view himself as a top 5 WR deserving of a top 5 contract.  Depending on how far apart both sides are, could be a situation where Bowe walks.


There is a ton of smoke, but if I had a bet, signs are pointing to Bowe's departure.



Monday, May 14, 2012

State of the Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs got better as a team this offseason.  Free Agency made the Chiefs better in 2012, while the draft made them better in the future.  That's how I would categorize the two major parts of the Chiefs offseason.

The Chiefs during the offseason made the same moves they always make. Chiefs got bargains on the Free Agent market at positions of need.  In Free Agency they committed to guys that were viewed as bargains.  In the past the Chiefs added Lilja, Breaston, McClain, Gaither, Jones, Chambers, Orton, and Siler.  Chiefs continued that trend in 2012  by adding Winston, Boss, Hillis, and Quinn.

In the draft Chiefs got BPA in some rounds but mostly stuck with getting the best athlete.  On the defensive front 7 the Chiefs added another superior athlete in Poe to go along with Allen Bailey, and Justin Houston in drafted in 2011.  Offensively the Chiefs added a solid pick in Allen (2nd round) to go along with interior picks Hudson (2nd round 2011) and Asomoah (3rd round 2012).  Outside of the offensive line the Chiefs have routinely taken some of the more intriguing/unique athletes in their respective drafts.

Personally I don't agree with parts of the draft strategy over the past 3 years, but I can't deny that the Chiefs have took risk.  With McCluster, Brown, Bailey, Poe, Powe, Baldwin, Houston, Stephenson, Wylie, and Arenas the Chiefs passed on better players with each pick, but one could argue that they didn't pass on the most potential.  All of the players listed have/had red flags, but all at the time they were drafted project as players that have tools that translate to being impact players in the NFL with development.

Given that the Chiefs have taken risk, the potential for future development beyond 2012 is very high.  I don't see the above group as having the biggest impact for the 2012 season outside of Houston.  That is where free agency and the veterans on the team will have to take over.  Even without the past 2 draft classes the Chiefs have a roster that rivals the entire division, while having dozens of players that project as having a huge impact beyond 2012.

Where the Chiefs stand today is a team that has improved schematically.  The playmakers are the same as they been in the past.  Cassel, Bowe, Charles will still be the horses the Chiefs hitch their wagon to offensively.  But the reliance on these players to determine the success of the team is diminished with the past two offseasons.

In Winston and Albert the Chiefs have two bookends that will free up the offensive coordinator.  With both tackles the Chiefs have the flexibility to send more receivers in routes.  Winston provides an upgrade over Richardson and his ability will translate to deeper drops, longer route development, more isolations, more ability to field playmakers.  This will have an impact in the way the Chiefs will operate.

In the past the Chiefs were limited in the plays they could go to in order to manufacture yardage.  With the improved personnel/development on the offensive line alone the Chiefs can open their playbook.  With Boss and Moeaki the Chiefs can play two receiving threats at the tight end position.  With their first full offseason in Kansas City Baldwin, and Breaston can expand on their roles.  In the interior Hudson and Asomoah bring a pedigree to the interior line that last year started 2 players that were undrafted when they entered the NFL.

Four years in the Pioli reign the Kansas City Chiefs have collected a offense that outside the QB position is among the best in the NFL.  Not only do the Chiefs look primed for a successful run offensively in 2012, but Pioli has took steps to build a team that can sustain a run beyond 2012.

Defensively this offseason wasn't as successful as it's offensive counterparts.  The Chiefs lost Brandon Carr and replaced him with Stanford Routt.  The Chiefs also saw it's starting NT walk in favor of a green rotation of Dontari Poe, and Jerrell Powe.  With the loss of Wallace Gilberry the Chiefs lost it's best interior pass rusher and 3rd best pass rusher overall without having a clear replacement for that production.

The defense for Kansas City has been a strength while the offense has been struggling to gain consistency.  I felt that it was appropriate for the Chiefs to add players that can help immediately offensively more than they needed players defensively this year.  The Chiefs continued adding players defensively that project to be superior athletes to the players they replace (Routt v. Carr-Poe v. Gregg) but I am not sure they will be better in 2012.

Defensive improvement will hinge primarily on Allen Bailey and Justin Houston's development along with the return of Eric Berry.  These three players along with Poe have the physical ability to take the Chiefs defense to the upper echelon of the NFL.  But that requires banking on potential, and not the actual production.  For me given these players immense talents physically and the coaching staff's experience...these players production takes a leap this year.

Overall I like what this roster looks like heading into the season.  My focus is the division, because although this team has filled most holes...they are still very green.  Starting roughly 8 players with 3 years or less experience.  The best is yet to come with this team.  But the Chiefs have arrived as a team that no longer will shock.  An era is shaping where this franchise has a roster that should compete annually for the division crown even with the worst Quarterback in the division.