We have finally arrived to the regular season. I will be doing a weekly preview and re-cap all year for Chiefs season to give my perspective on the upcoming matchup. Below is my first installment.
Overview:
Many believe the Falcons are ahead of the Chiefs coming off of their second consecutive playoff appearance. Offensively I believe that to be true. Matt Ryan has the perfect compliment of skill players for what he does. He's an accurate passer that throws very catchable passes. He has a Montana-esque ability to throw WR open with great placement. The Chiefs are facing one of the most efficient passing teams in the NFL. A team that has the ability to win games both with their running and their passing games.
For the Chiefs offense they come into the matchup with a clear advantage on offense v. Atlanta's defense. Atlanta has struggled with pass rush and watching through preseason they don't appear to have many answers. The Falcons were statistically sound v. the run last year but that could be a by-product of scheduling. The Falcons also watched their leading tackler Curtis Lofton bolt this past offseason.
This game in my opinion will come down to which teams manages their situations better. What defense is able to get the opposing offense off the field on 3rd and down and red zone defense. The edge goes to Atlanta, while their defense has struggled vs. the pass their offense is built to win close games and manage situations.
Below are some factors heading into next week that I believe will prove critical in the matchup.
Coaching:
Both Kansas City and Atlanta enter the season with new coordinators. For KC much won't change. Daboll who has been a good running game coordinator inherits one of the best running teams in the NFL. New OC Dirk Koetter inherits a team that is in line with what he did in Jacksonville, power running and intermediate passing.
The wildcard I see comes with the arrival of Mike Nolan. Outside of his tenure as head coach of the 49ers, Nolan's defenses have always been solid. Nolan recently known as a 3-4 coach will run a 4-3 in Atlanta. In Atlanta I see a few question marks in their front 7. Last year the Falcons had a solid rush defense led by recently departed Curtis Lofton.
Matchups:
Stanford Routt v. Julio Jones
Routt has the physical ability to match the foot speed of Julio Jones. The issue is Routt isn't very good at turning down field giving the advantage to Julio Jones on 50/50 balls. The problem Routt will have on Jones is he is always one play away from taking it to the house. Routt must limit Jones damage and not allow the big play.
From the preseason I think Routt is up for the challenge. But it is important that pressure gets to the QB because it's asking too much for Routt to cover a late developing post or routes similar. I think Routt is solid defending the sideline routes but struggles against routes that have multiple moves. Timing will be critical with this matchup, pass rush has to set a clock.
John Abraham v. Albert/Winston.
For Atlanta it is critical for Abraham to disrupt the timing of the Chiefs passing game. Mike Nolan will send pressure but it will be Abraham's job to have success vs. Albert/Winston. Abraham won't need to register a sack to have success, but with no other legit pass rusher (save Edwards/Witherspoon) it will be his job to win the matchups.
Albert is an elite pass blocker while Winston is solid in this department. For Chiefs it would be a tough chore to leave Winston by himself against Abraham but should be fine when Albert is isolated on Abraham. Other than Abraham the Falcons don't pose many pass rush threats. If Chiefs tackles can keep Abraham under wraps, it should allow Chiefs passing game freedom.
Dunta Robinson v. Dexter McCluster
The wide receiver that Matt Cassel has been most comfortable with is Dexter McCluster in the slot. Atlanta provides an intriguing matchup with Robinson. With the addition of Asante Samuel longtime started Robinson is moved to the slot. Still a productive player with 9 pass defensed and 2 int's...Robinson has always been a productive tackler and flashed ability to get to QB early in career.
Robinson is a veteran that will probably have the advantage against Dexter in the slot. Dexter doesn't do a lot out of the slot from a route tree perspective. Robinson as a vet should pick up on what Dexter does and should be able to match up with it. With Nolan as coordinator I could see Robinson being a factor in the blitz game as well.
Michael Turner v. Chiefs NT
This matchup may decide the game. Atlanta under Mike Mularkey were a power running team with most of their runs coming in the box. Nearly 230 of the 300 carries Mike Turner had last year came in the box. Koetter called similar plays with most of his runs in the power game while in Jacksonville. Last year nearly 270 of MJD's 330 carries came in the box.
Talks are that Jaquizz Rodgers will have a bigger role, he has the ability to use the sidelines. But the bulk of the work is going to still go to Turner. To defend Turner the Chiefs must be able to get good play from the NT position. Also with Harry Douglas the Falcons have the ability to get our sub-package on the field. That is matchup vs. Chiefs sub that is in Atlanta's favor.
If Chiefs can't stop Turner with the front 7 then that will trigger single coverage where Matt Ryan and those WR become dangerous. In order to limit the option for the passing game it is important that we get good play from our run defense.
Tony Gonzalez vs. Houston/Belcher/Berry
In the past Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson has got the bulk of his coverage vs. running backs. I don't expect that to change. With Tony Gonzalez the Falcons have a mismatch no matter who the Chiefs put on him. The positive is Gonzalez is a possession type so he won't offer much in YAC, but he can be critical with keeping the chains moving and that offense on the field.
Chiefs have to us multiple looks to take the read away from Matt Ryan. In Chiefs games vs. San Diego and their All-Pro TE Antonio Gates the Chiefs used bracket coverage. Chiefs used McGraw underneath and Lewis often over the top. I expect Romeo to try and give different looks on Gonzalez to disrupt the read for Matt Ryan.
Keys to the game:
1-Chiefs must tackle.
Sounds simple but a lot of the damage done by Atlanta's Roddy White and Julio Jones comes from YAC yardage. Roddy White has been a catch machine registering 100 catches the past two years. The ball will find him and it's up to the Chiefs secondary to limit what he does after the catch. Julio Jones is an even more dangerous threat. He had a 17 yard average last year and is expected to be even more involved this year. I envision both WR making catches, but Chiefs can't allow them to be more than possession WR.
2-Chiefs must defend 1st down.
The Chiefs have shown the ability to let a game get away early. The Falcons pose a legit threat to open the game explosively. The Falcons are the most effective on first down and in the first quarter of games. 11 of Matt Ryan's passing touchdowns came on 1st down, as well as in the 1st quarter. Play-action has been something the Chiefs have struggled with in the pre-season.
The Falcons aren't nearly as efficient as the game goes along, perhaps due to the wear and tear that the power running game puts on their personnel. Mike Mularkey was more creative with his calls last year something that Koetter hasn't been. Koetter has been more conservative on 1st down electing to run during his years in Jacksonville. Obviously Koetter had MJD and no Matt Ryan in Jacksonville so that could change...but something to keep an eye on.
3-Chiefs need to stay away from 1-on-1's.
Matt Ryan doesn't have a cannon, his calling card is touch and accuracy. As long as the Chiefs have ability to stay over their WR's with safety help that limits Ryan's options. Ryan is great at throwing to space but doesn't make a living in tight windows. With those WR Chiefs have to take the over the top look away from Ryan.
If Chiefs are unable to stop Turner then that will pose a problem. That will bring safety help up and create another look for Ryan and those WR's. Simply keeping a safety over the top will go a long way in limiting that offenses range.
Picks-ATL 19, KC 14.
