Saturday, December 15, 2012

Talking Shop: WC, Coryell, Earhardt-Perkins

Just random thoughts on schemes...

When the game of football first begin to take roots in America...it was a large (several dozen people), essentially in a scrum, trying to advance an object.  Pop Warner came along and gave the game rules. Shortly after the turn of the century the passing game gave the game breath.  But the biggest influence on the game was the weather.

Professional football early was largely based out of the north eastern United States.  With the colder climate the NFL was known for it's power offenses and defenses...even today we still have trends.  The AFL was situated in a different climate with teams from Texas and California.  Based on this premise...you see the birth of many of the different schemes used today in the NFL.

Sid Gilman is credited with creating the West Coast offense...his assistants were Chuck Noll, Al Davis, Dick Vermiel, Don Coryell.  These men defined an era...and ushered in many of the innovations we still in use today.  These early AFL teams can be credited with bringing the vertical passing attack to the NFL.

The West Coast system as known today came about as a bit of an accident.  Bill Walsh took over as offensive coordinator for the expansion Cincinnati Bengals.  Bill Walsh had a QB that couldn't execute the offenses used by other Coryell teams...that's when the birth of the modern day West Coast offense happened.

In it's plainest terms...a coach trying to figure out how to run an efficient passing game with a limited arm struck gold.  Walsh spread the field...used more receivers in routes...got the ball out early so the QB didn't have to rely on strength.  The QB didn't have to be talented in order to be efficient.

The original West Coast schemes from Gilman resemble what San Diego (Don Coryell/Norv Turner), Oakland (Al Davis), Steelers (Chuck Noll) were vertical passing schemes that depended on the QB and WR's attacking vertically.  Al Davis was heavy handed in this approach...but all have been defined by power running and vertical passing.

The Coryell and the Eahardt-Perkins appear to be the same...both emphasize the run, Coryell is far more aggressive in it's passing principles.  Earhardt-Perkins in a nutshell is smash mouth football...and relies on individual match-ups over scheme.  The offense was run by the Giants of the 80's, the Patriot's under Bill Belichik early, and recently with the Chiefs.

The object is to run and have a QB that can score the ball and complete 3rd downs.  The game plan in general is conservative and doesn't require the QB to make a lot of throws.  QB's have thrived in this system (Tom Brady), but by and large the system isn't conducive for QB's to put up volume stats.  Situational football, ability to make right adjustment at line, and ability to take care of ball is paramount.  A lot of systems depend on OC to make calls, when this works...the QB makes most of calls.  Find the mismatch at the line of scrimmage.

The issues that this offense poses for a passer...the offense needs run personnel. Teams carry fullbacks and tight ends which restricts the field and the options for the QB when they have to pass.  It's a talent driven offense that depends on 1 on 1's rather than the scheme to get them open.  The issue the Chiefs have is their inability to win 1 on 1's.




Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Anatomy of a Rebuild...how the Chiefs got here

This post isn't meant to be a historical reference of the past...not an indictment of anyone...rather a post about what the Chiefs really are.  It's to explain the root of the reasons why I am in favor of Pioli, and why I think firing him is a mistake.  Thanks for reading and hope you enjoy...

The lifeblood of any team is the NFL draft...Green Bay showcased that on their Super Bowl run when they had to go deep into their roster.  The Chiefs missed in that department for over a decade and we still fill the effects today.  If we hit on Junior Siavii or Ryan Sims...do we draft Glenn Dorsey or do we draft Joe Flacco?  Missing on picks doesn't hurt just that year...the high ones linger for years.  In the Chiefs case and at the rate they miss...we are still feeling the effects.

That wasn't always the case...from 88-93 HOF Derrick Thomas was added...Neil Smith, Tim Grunhard, Dave Szott, Dale Carter and Will Shields that laid most of the success that many of us remember as "Marty Ball".  The issue isn't the talent acquisition early in CP's tenure...the issue became after that initial influx.

What followed in regards to the draft after that period was the catalyst to many of the issues over the last several years.  1st round picks of Greg Hill, Trezelle Jenkins, and Victor Riley came in a span of 5 years.  Players like John Tait and Donnie Edwards left town.  TG was a prize pick and will go down in the annals of history....but for every TG there are a dozen Vanovers, Beisels, Dante Hall's and Gary Still's.

When the shelf life of the 88-93 draft classes were coming to an end...the team was full of special teams players.  Although TG, Donnie Edwards, John Tait had promise...there were simply to many Mike Cloud and Rashaan Shehee picks.  The appropriate thing at that time would have been to rebuild the roster.  Instead by 2001 we continued to drive a rudderless ship.

By the time 2001 rolled along it had been about 8 years since the Chiefs added significant talent through the draft (outside aforementioned TG and the specialist).  Dick Vermiel was not brought to KC for a rebuilding effort...something that the Chiefs needed.  CP was going on his 2nd decade, and Vermiel was near the end of his career.  So they went for it and the ineptitude continued.

The Chiefs added veterans in Trent Green, Priest Holmes, and Willie Roaf.  Offensively they set the NFL on fire with one of the most prolific offenses.  But Derrick Thomas passed...Neil Smith was gone...Dale Carter, James Hasty, Donnie Edwards all seen there time come to an end and there was nobody else.

The Chiefs attempted to address it in FA...Ty Law, Surtain, Kendrell Bell...big time free agents were brought in to help the defense.  In the draft the Chiefs selected Ryan Sims, Junior Siavii, Snoop Minnis, Slyvester Morris, Eddie Freeman, Larry Johnson, Kris Wilson (secret weapon).  While the Chiefs were lighting up the scoreboard under Vermiel we were becoming an older team...and a team that was failing to replinish the stock.

When Herm was hired he inherited that aging offense and that lack of youth.  The rebuild didn't happen over night...Herm, CP, and Hunt didn't get together and think it up.  The rebuild was 15 years in the making...15 years of ineptitude in the draft led to that.  Herm proved vital during that period.  Drafts of Bowe, Hali, Albert, Charles, Flowers, Carr gave this team an infusion of talent they hadn't had in years.

That's essentially the situation Pioli inherited...2 rookie cornerbacks, a pass rusher coming off of 2 sacks, a linebacker that couldn't put it together, a 3rd round running back few were clamoring about.  Pioli inherited no veterans of note that could still play.  He inherited 15 years of ineptitude.  Guys like Sims, Slyvester Morris, Junior Siavii, Eric Downing, John Tait should have been the veterans in 2009...instead that responsibility fell on Larry Johnson.

That's why we ended up with Cassel and Vrabel...the leader at the time was spitting on women in strip clubs.  Leadership was necessary, change was necessary, and in that moment the moves that were made were the right ones.  Haley established the groundwork that changed the laid back culture that existed.  Today we hold those moves against Pioli...but would you do it any different?

Today I hear a lot about firings...but nobody has a solution...the reality is this isn't an easy fix.  We aren't the Steelers who went from Lloyd to Kevin Greene to Joey Porter to James Harrison to Lamar Woodley.  The results you see from the Steelers today has everything to do with how they operated in the past.  What you see is consistency...a consistency that you don't get by firing.

People are quick to say, "Harbaugh won in year 1"...so did Barry Switzer and Bill Callahan went to a Super Bowl.  Harbaugh won with good players...3 starters for the 05' draft...2 from 06'...3 from 07'.  The Chiefs only have 4 drafted players on the roster drafted prior to 07' and one is the punter.  Teams can win with that much youth but a lot has to go right...unfortunately a lot has went wrong recently in KC.

Parting Shot

This history is why I can't call for Pioli's head.  I can't want a man fired that has acquired more talent via the draft in KC in nearly 20 years.  It hasn't been pretty but change for the sake of change is not the appropriate measure.  This team was a train wreck waiting to happen and talent wise we are recovering albeit slowly.

I see the games and hate what I am seeing...but the same players who pundits claimed to be the best in the AFC West isn't a lie.  There is a collection of talent in KC, a young sustainable roster.  A roster that still has room to grow.  I can't want him fired because of that.

The issue with Haley...sorry to tell you...Haley fell off the damn rails.  If the culture is so terrible why is everyone seeming to get along this year?  Why is Weis returning to a place where employees hate to be?  It was Haley with the beef with Weis...Haley screaming at people on the sideline...Haley making claims about bugs...consider the source.

This season is awful...and I wish someone could be held accountable.  The irony is I don't believe a firing is best for this franchise.  Firing Carl didn't wish the issues away and neither will firing Pioli.  If you believe he can't evaluate talent (which I don't) then so be it...fire him.  But this travesty isn't on the GM's hands completely.

Cassel won 10-11 games...two different coordinators figured how to make it work.  What happened this year can be laid at the feet of the coaches.  Romeo didn't forget how to coach (getting blown out like he always has sprinkled with a WTF performance here and there).  With this much sample size it's safe to say he's not cut out for the HC spot.

This team is laying the groundwork in terms of having sustainable success.  Obvious pieces are missing but the question is who completes the puzzle.  I post a lot of favorable things on Pioli...wanted to spell out exactly why I do that.  Don't fire him for what happened this year...because making moves based on one year put us here.

The teams that sustain success are what the Chiefs want to be.  It shouldn't be about this year, much more is on the line.

Top 5 QB's NFL Draft

It's early and could change...first installment on the position the Chiefs should draft #1. Thoughts on the upcoming QB class and where I rank them.

1-Mike Glennon

Glennon goes to the top because of his versatility...he has the range to fit in a vertical scheme and the mechanics to fit in a controlled passing scheme. 

A quality I like with Glennon's game is his release point on his throws.  Does a great job of manipulating speeds and angles...making him a very versatile passer in the intermediate game.  

Issues I see with Glennon is he doesn't stay planted, and plays with a high center of gravity.  Currently Glennon has good range but he can improve on it if he can generate more force from his lower body.  


2-Matt Barkley

I put Barkley here not primarily based on his technique.  Barkley is very polished QB in terms of his footwork.  Does a great job establishing base and transferring power quickly in his lower body.

Barkley's drops and ability to get rid of the ball will lend itself well to West Coast systems that require timing.  In the intermediate game Barkley can generate enough velocity to fit the ball in windows at the next level.

Issue with Barkley is arm strength.  Barkley transfers a lot of power in lower body on throws in the intermediate game, but breaks mechanics for deeper passes.  He relies on trajectory and generates less force with the lower body.  Barkley is a much different QB if he can't establish that base.

3-Tyler Wilson

Wilson has the best arm talent in this draft class.  While I see Barkley thriving in the intermediate game I see Wilson in a scheme that attacks deeper quadrants.  He has the range to make defenses adjust, a rare quality in this draft.

Wilson has the natural arm to make throws without great footwork...when he is able to set he can get more velocity behind a ball better than any QB in this class.  Wilson plants and twist which accounts for the power but effects his accuracy.

Issues with Wilson is his corkscrew motion...his hips open before the ball is released effecting his accuracy.  Doesn't step in and drive throws consistently rather he rotates his base which effects accuracy.  I wouldn't want to depend on him in a ball control passing scheme but see him as an ideal fit in a vertical scheme.

4-Logan Thomas

Thomas is 1b in terms of arm strength in this draft class.  Displays an incredible touch at the top of his release.  Generates most of his power from his motion and at his size gets great extension on his release.  Also Thomas brings the ability to game-plan for his ability to run which is an added bonus.

The issue with Thomas is talent wise he could be the best in this class when you consider everything.  I feel he will get drafted much higher than his production.  Out of the top-5 he is the least ready to start from day one.  But he's worth a gamble given his natural ability.

Thomas has to work on his timing...everything with Thomas is slow and this timing issue will hurt him in the NFL.  He has to work on his drops, his plants, and his transfer.  Thomas' arm motion is very good but he has to get more out of his lower body to make consistent throws in the NFL.

5-Geno Smith

Smith is at 5 on my list...although I think he is better today than 3 of the 4 QB's...I don't think his ceiling is as high.  Credit Smith because his technique is what puts him on the list.  Along with Barkley he is one of the more efficient passers in the game using good footwork to get rid of ball quickly and with power.

I see Smith excelling in a system that relies on the QB's ability to quickly read and get rid of the ball.  I don't see him as a fit in schemes that rely on power and vertical passing.  Smith's calling card is speed and there are few QB's that can get the ball out quicker than Smith.

Issue with Smith is the natural arm talent which shows when teams are able to move him off his spot...the arm simply isn't special.  Smith has good speed...but if he is moved more times than not he is reduced to simply a runner...doesn't keep eyes locked down field consistently.  Smith is a fastball thrower and does well at manipulating speeds, but question his versatility as a passer outside of being a fastball thrower.







Monday, December 10, 2012

Revisionist History: Pioli and The Cassel Deal

It's December of 2012 and Chiefs GM Scott Pioli finds his job on the line...and that shouldn't be the case.  I want to go into detail as to why his job is on the line...things like wins, coaches, and the QB.  Today I want to hit on the dynamic between Pioli and Cassel...from his familiarity...to the deal...and the options at that time.

Let's go back to 2009.  Chiefs fans sat through another Croyle trip to the IR and a Tyler Thigpen finish to end the year.  As a fan I was good with Matt Cassel...he had to be better than Huard/Croyle/Thigpen and might rival Trent Green.  He just finished a solid season with New England and figured he could come close to that production in KC.

The Quarterbacks were between Croyle (who really wasn't an option), Mark Sanchez (you see how that is working out), Josh Freeman (3 wins in 09', 10 wins in 10', 4 wins 2011 and a fired coach...already there), or Matt Cassel.  An argument could be made whatever choice he made he will be in this position.  Ryan seat is about as hot as Pioli's, as well as the career as starter of Sanchez and Cassel.  Dominik appears to have survived in year 4 with a 6-9 record.

Point is we are tying Pioli to this decision when we don't factor that close to any decision at that position would have led to this.  Cassel at the time made sense so I can't sit here and change my mind on it 4 years later anymore than Pioli...that's why I don't hold Pioli to this decision.  Given the options his decision at the QB made perfect sense...even in hindsight.

The problem with Cassel is the commitment.  Cassel got a 6 year 60 million dollar deal...in reality it was around 4 years 40 million.  NFL contracts are generally based on the guaranteed portion which Cassel is out of.  The issue is the Chiefs were in a position to get out of that deal earlier and cut bait.

Look at Cassel's deal as a car deal.  Replace the 6 years 60 million with 6 years 60 thousand.  The day you buy a car you can get out of it that day...but it will end up costing you.  There's a point where your payments is equal to the blue book and you can get out of it without eating money.  In general NFL contracts are no different.  Unfortunately on a deal that size it took 4 years for the Chiefs to reach "blue book" (get out of it without eating money).

That's where cheap comes in...giving a bum in Cassel 60 million is not cheap...identifying he is garbage and riding that deal out is cheap.  That's where my criticism is...not in getting Cassel rather holding on to him for 4 years.  Pioli needed to admit that mistake and move on...they needed to eat that deal and move on.  

Cassel is often used as a point why Pioli should have been fired.  Pioli should be fired for bringing Cassel in...the issue was keeping Cassel around.  People say they don't trust Pioli to draft a QB, but that can't be because of Cassel...because any choice at that spot in 09' had a good chance of landing him in a similar spot.