Wednesday, April 4, 2012

A case for Matt Cassel

There have been a few times that I was content with Matt Cassel as the Chiefs starting quarterback.  In 2010 Matt Cassel had the type of run that gave me optimism that something was there...that he was figuring it out.  The 2011 season just started out terribly for the whole team, and Matt Cassel was part of the problem.

In the 2011 season, story lines in preseason went from defending the division title...to in a short time seriously considering this team was the worst in the NFL.  The Chiefs not only lost Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki, Cassel lost his two easiest reads.

Jamaal Charles has the ability to fix mistakes.  That's important for an offense quarterbacked by Matt Cassel, because there will be mistakes.  Not by way of interceptions, but by way of misreads/incompletions/missed line assignments.  Jamaal Charles gave the Chiefs a player that could excel even given the personnel surrounding him.

Matt Cassel can get on a roll when he can hit the wide receiver he sees.  Against zone coverage Matt Cassel becomes elite.  Teams that either didn't have the pass rush to rush Cassel, or pass coverage that couldn't eliminate Cassel's first read they were exploited.

Part of that issue falls on the communication.  Pre-snap reads are a big part of offensive efficiency.  Part of Manning's game is identifying the hot reads are/identifying the blitz/adjusting routes all before the ball is snapped.  I don't know what parts are Bill Muir/Todd Haley/Cassel but a simple adjustment in communication will be the difference in Cassel having more flexibility at the line.

I can understand the point of view that Weis and Haley have a reputation of being play callers.  Some coaches don't offer a lot of flexibility and have had success in the NFL.  Cassel is not a offensive weapon that has a cannon or great touch...his success won't depend on physical skills but mental development.  Giving him time at the line will aide.

The most important and dangerous aspect to the Chiefs offense is it's secondary reads.  People tend to put labels on wide receivers that have stuck.  The term #1 wide receiver has been used incorrectly.  It's simple, the #1 wide receiver is the #1 read.  Bowe and Baldwin are not this teams #1 wide receivers, the #1 is Steve Breaston...he is this teams first read.

That makes this teams two 1st round wide receivers 2nd and 3rd/4th reads.  They drafted Baldwin to be that range on the 3rd read on top of a 7 step drop.  That's the talent that Baldwin brings, a bust as a 1st read, solid at best as a 2nd, game changers as a 3rd read given his size and speed.

They franchised Bowe to be this teams 2nd read.  Bowe can be a number 1 read, and he has been most of his career.  Breaston is important because it gives Bowe the chance to be in position where his skills fit the best and that is as a 2nd read.  His leaping ability, size, and speed is better used as a 2nd read.

That has been the issue for Cassel.  Not only does he not have time to consistently get to his 2nd and 3rd read which makes this team very good.  He also doesn't have the physical tools to hit reads late.  His power isn't an issue if he has the ability pre-snap to eliminate reads.

Winston will also help Cassel.  Not only does Winston gives The Chiefs an upgrade, but he also gives the offense more range.  Being that our best reads require a 5-7 step drop, Winston gives us more time, perhaps enough time for Cassel to make an additional read.

The interior run game should improve as well which helps Cassel.  West Coast offenses don't need to bring defenses up.  They need the area at the line of scrimmage for the passing game given the short routes.  Those offenses need to back defenses up to get their ideal coverages.

The Chiefs are the opposite.  Their threats are not quick, ball control, route runners.  Bowe, Moeaki and Baldwin are athletes with range.  The more defenders in the secondary the less effective these players are.  The running game is key, that makes the defense come forward.  Which in turn puts less defenders in the secondary.

Cassel needs the strong running game and Charles isn't enough.  Charles is dangerous, but he doesn't force defenders up.  He forces defenses to consider playing zone instead of man, but it's about angles/fundamentals in defending Jamaal not force.  The power running game makes defensive coordinators to adjust to power.  Which makes them stronger to stop the run but weakens coverage.

More than anything Cassel needs a power running game to force that defensive substitution.  Cassel can make all of the throws, but he doesn't have the tools to consistently beat a defense that schemes against him.  The Chiefs appear to have understood this by adding Boss, Hillis, and Winston to help in the power game.

I don't think Cassel can get better, but I do think the situation in Kansas City is shaping to put Cassel in good positions to be successful.  I think the Chiefs know who Cassel is, and have taken the steps to build a team that can win with him.

I expect Cassel to put up top ten numbers if he gets time on the line, and the power run improves.  It will have nothing to do with him, rather more about the team being able to be in more favorable positions for the passing game.










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